NFL odds: Why you need to guess towards Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst

Be forewarned: Dallas Cowboys followers won’t be pleased with this piece.

Let’s dive into why I am betting towards the Cowboys from a playing perspective this upcoming season.

The remainder of the NFC East improved — particularly Philadelphia — and the Cowboys misplaced maybe six starters from a division winner. Are we someway anticipated to consider Dallas goes to win the Tremendous Bowl (+1600 at FOX Guess), and even 11 video games? 

The Cowboys had an unbelievable 2021 season, main the NFC in level differential (+172). However they benefited tremendously from turnovers, tying the NFL lead with a plus-14 turnover margin and main the league in interceptions with 26. These numbers won’t be duplicated year-to-year, that means regression is coming. 

Dak Prescott threw a career-high 37 landing passes final 12 months, however he tried the fewest rushes of his profession as he was coming off a grotesque leg harm. Nonetheless, Prescott nonetheless fumbled as many occasions (9) as he had in his first 5 seasons mixed. He additionally misplaced three of these fumbles after solely shedding one earlier than 2021. After getting a colossal contract, Prescott was barely a High 10 QB within the NFL final season, per Professional Soccer Focus, behind the likes of Kirk Cousins and Kyler Murray.

And whereas the potent Cowboys’ offense led the NFL in factors (530) final season, Michael Gallup is unlikely to return from his ACL surgical procedure earlier than Halloween, they usually misplaced Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson. Sure, CeeDee Lamb is again, however shedding Cooper on the surface is huge as a result of Lamb was devastating as a slot receiver his rookie 12 months. He then moved outdoors extra typically in his second 12 months, reverse Cooper, and dominated cornerbacks one-on-one. Now Lamb will face the opponent’s No. 1 cornerback each week and see loads of double-teams, with groups unlikely to roll coverages towards James Washington and promising rookie Jalen Tolbert. Let’s simply say Gallup’s well being will probably be pivotal to the crew’s success.

And, how about considered one of Dallas’ most important strengths in years previous, the trenches? Properly, there will probably be two new starters in Week 1 on the offensive line and probably 4 on protection. Changing Randy Gregory, who was second on the crew in sacks final 12 months, will probably be robust. Gregory will probably be changed by Dante Fowler, who hopes his fourth crew is the allure (Jacksonville, LA Rams, Atlanta Falcons). Traditionally Fowler has been woefully inconsistent, however maybe taking part in reverse Micah Parsons will assist him duplicate his 2019 stats (11.5 sacks). If not, Dallas will wrestle mightily to repeat their defensive success from final season. 

As you possibly can see above, Shannon shares my sentiments.

The one saving grace for the Cowboys is a soft schedule that options non-division video games towards groups with among the lowest projected win totals in soccer in Detroit, Chicago, Houston and Jacksonville. 

Relating to the NFC East, Dallas would wish to go 5-1 within the division to method the over (6-0 final 12 months). That gained’t be simple, with the Eagles vastly improved, including elite receiver AJ Brown, cross rusher Haason Reddick and once-great cornerback James Bradberry. The Giants now have probably the greatest offensive minds (Brian Daboll) in soccer as head coach. And Washington’s protection might return to being a High 10 unit prefer it was in 2020 with Chase Younger wholesome; plus, they now have a legit beginning quarterback in Carson Wentz. 

I saved the very best for final, so how is that this for a parting shot? Within the earlier 25 years, the Cowboys have by no means produced back-to-back seasons with double-digit wins. Let’s face it, this franchise doesn’t deal with success effectively. 

And overlook double-digit wins, what about simply making the playoffs in back-to-back seasons? That final occurred for Dallas in 2006 and 2007.

Sorry, Dallas followers. I am fading the Cowboys. Give me the underneath win complete for subsequent season as considered one of my greatest early bets.

PICK: Dallas Cowboys Underneath 10.5 wins at FOX Guess

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports activities betting analyst, and he additionally writes concerning the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on each present on the community. In 2017, McIntyre started producing playing content material on the NFL, faculty soccer and NBA for FOX Sports activities. He had a playing podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Earlier than arriving at FOX, he created the web site The Massive Lead, which he offered in 2010.